Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.467043 1.521813 1.578390 1.641381 1.709776 1.782045 1.864513
2025-12-14 1.389066 1.461241 1.538033 1.626342 1.725765 1.835068 1.965502
2025-12-21 1.328673 1.411830 1.502231 1.608735 1.732047 1.871979 2.045295
2025-12-28 1.297740 1.391460 1.495354 1.620538 1.769395 1.943663 2.167849
2026-01-04 1.276760 1.380100 1.496703 1.640156 1.815114 2.026270 2.308566
2026-01-11 1.245476 1.354685 1.479613 1.635853 1.830336 2.071047 2.403629
2026-01-18 1.221193 1.335923 1.468850 1.637694 1.852035 2.123990 2.512530
2026-01-25 1.185418 1.301890 1.438024 1.612820 1.837823 2.128468 2.554147
2026-02-01 1.161020 1.280415 1.421276 1.604259 1.843401 2.158521 2.633282
2026-02-08 1.137435 1.258973 1.403543 1.593293 1.844684 2.182031 2.703939
2026-02-15 1.115392 1.238610 1.386267 1.581897 1.844355 2.202606 2.771132
2026-02-22 1.101649 1.227892 1.380454 1.584783 1.862955 2.250411 2.884621
2026-03-01 1.072667 1.198033 1.350245 1.555338 1.836865 2.233554 2.894741
2026-03-08 1.054794 1.181492 1.336346 1.546811 1.839185 2.258198 2.975773
2026-03-15 1.036043 1.163323 1.319765 1.533960 1.834586 2.271840 3.038992
2026-03-22 1.029386 1.160121 1.322184 1.546588 1.866597 2.343017 3.212345
2026-03-29 1.025817 1.160629 1.329269 1.565635 1.908621 2.432729 3.433712
2026-04-05 1.013388 1.149447 1.320643 1.562495 1.917487 2.469523 3.557842
2026-04-12 1.003708 1.141524 1.316023 1.564653 1.934197 2.520151 3.718122
2026-04-19 0.984823 1.121297 1.294548 1.542285 1.912459 2.504318 3.733804
2026-04-26 0.972438 1.109255 1.283703 1.534656 1.913002 2.526584 3.837028
2026-05-03 0.959696 1.096488 1.271568 1.524756 1.909492 2.541389 3.925556
2026-05-10 0.947284 1.083914 1.259400 1.514411 1.904776 2.553616 4.010007